Rod Raynovich Blog | Healthcare Portfolio Is Doing Well But Biotech Stocks Are Mired In Macro | Talkmarkets

If you have been reading our reports over the past two years your stock portfolio should have beaten the market. Our top picks are United Health (UNH) up 4.29% YTD and 135.7% over 5 years, Merck (MRK) is up 42.46% YTD  with good momentum lately, and our top large cap biopharma picks having all done well but lately have been hit with PE compression. But PEs remain at lower end in the mid-teens with dividends. Still near 52-week highs are GILD, LLY, MRK, and REGN and we still like ABBV and VRTX despite the recent volatility. BMY is the weakest among our holdings and is a bit overvalued with a PE of 24 and weak momentum lately. Here are some financial metrics as we approach Q4 and 2022 final large cap biopharma earnings in January.

One concern we have is that many strategists favor the healthcare sector in 2023. The reason given is the defensive nature of the sector with more predictable biopharma earnings and robust product pipelines. And with strong balance sheets large caps have the ability to do M&A to strengthen product portfolios.

The biotech sector has not done well in 2022 despite some strong runs. Small and mid-cap stocks are more “risk-off’ with interest rates rising and sentiment waning. The Russell 200 (IWM) is off 22% YTD but the biotech smaller cap XBI is down 27% with momentum waning. The technicals on the XBI in 2022 do not look good with three tries at the $95 level falling below $80 again today.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Click on image to enlarge)

Today Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) soared 249% on positive Phase 3 clinical data for NASH and liver disease. Normally this kind of positive result would spark interest in the sector. But both the IBB and XBI were down.

So the play in 2023 will be stock picking not so easy with the sector looking weak. Also, we will look at MedTech and Tools for new picks after earnings.

Another loser day, Don’ Fight the Fed!

Long ABBV,BMY,RHHBY, PRHSX,REGN, UNH,XBI

Model
PORTFOLIO
		2020		2020	2020	2021		2022		2022
Stock/ETF	Ticker	Price	Wgt	Price		Price	1 year	YTD	30d	Price	5 days
		10/25	%	12/31	% Perf	12/31/21	% Perf	%Perf	%Perf	12/16	% Perf
iShares NAZ Bio	IBB*	136	15	151.5	25.7	152.62	-11.56	-12.86	-0.9	133	–
iShares Russell 2k	IWM	163	5	196.4	18.3	222.45	\17.86	-21.61	-5.36	174.37	-2.38
Merck*	MRK	80	10	81.77	-10	76.64	43.85	42.48	9.28	109.2	0.39
United Health	UNH	330	25	350.7	27.19	502	20.68	4.29	2.38	523.7	-2.87
SPDR S&P Bio	XBI	117	10	140.8	48	111.96	-36.34	-27.69	-0.65	80.96	1.86
Healthcare SPDR	XLV	108	25	113.4	14.71	140.89	-3.51	-3.89	1.89	135.53	-1.78
T.Rowe Hlth Sci	PRHSX	n/a	5	99.65	n/a	104	-23.47	-13.61	-0.72	89.83	-5
iShares U.S MedT	IHI	50	5	54.83		65.85	-25.91	-21.49	-0.43	51.7	-2.27
Tracking Comp	COMP
							*
ARK Genomic	ARKG			93.26		61.24	-60.55	-50.75	-10.37	30.16	-0.63
FIDO Biotech	FBIOX			25.18		19.35	-33.57	-16.92	2.26	16.27	–
FiIDO MEDtech	FSMEX			76.15		83.18	-33.96	-26.8	0.59	60.89	-2.6
DOW	DIA			310		363.32	\(12.6)	-9.45	-2.11	328.97	-1.91
S&P 500	SPY			379		475	-17.48	-19.3	-3.08	383.27	-2.55
NASDAQ-100	QQQ			315		397.85	-27	-31.07	-3.92	274.25	-2.76
Top Biopharmas
							n/a
Abbvie	ABBV						35.22	18.52	5.67	160.48	-1.58
Bristol Myers Sq	BMY						24.91	17.87	-3.49	73.49	-6.77
Eli Lilly	LLY						41.3	30.28	1.97	359.87	-0.31
Merck	MRK						17.86	42.48	9.28	109.2	0.39
Regeneron	REGN						25.39	14.47	-1.7	723.17	-3.59
Vertex	VRTX						60.35	38.8	-0.21	304.8	-2.38

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